A glimmer of progress:

The ‘daily new cases’ in the USA has climbed by only about 6-7% for March 27 and 28, and for the 29th actually dropped. The daily rates of increase have, for the most part, been much higher.

Also, daily new deaths dropped by almost half for the 29th. Two or three data points do not a trend make, obviously, but it is good to see some data points some movement in more positive directions.

Even still, it would seem based on the momentum of our current trajectory, that Dr. Fauci’s current estimates of 100,000 deaths in this country alone may, unfortunately, not be far off the mark once all is said and done. Barring Wuhan, China style lockdown measures, which one can conjecture were probably fairly draconian and not anything most Americans would, literally, not sit still for, what we are seeing in NYC is going to be repeated in most other metro areas in due time.

It could be stopped, but seeing the amount of ‘leakage’ in current ‘stay home’ policies enacted by many states, many people are simply not taking distancing measures seriously enough to keep the spread down. At one point I kinda hoped the Florida population would have just herded the spring break crowd into the Atlantic and...., well I’ll leave it at that. Some idiots just don’t ever learn...or care.

One would think by now that message would be hitting home with full force, but for some it does not seem to be.

Be safe.

Earl

__________________
Earl L. Cagle, Jr.
NAR# 29523
TRA# 962
SAM# 73
Owner/Producer
Point 39 Productions

Rocket-Brained Since 1970

Our resort officially closed until 5/15.
We rebooked everything for 6/13 to 6/24.
The resort gave us the same suite with two extra nights free.
It did cost us an extra $108 for the flights to re book.
I just hope this is over well before then.

Please, everyone stay safe !
Yeah, yeah I know it's ME making a "safety first" post.....

Seeing as "social distancing" has been nationally extended to 4/30, the kids will be off school until at least then. Wonder if that will impact HS Graduations ?

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When in doubt, WHACK the GAS and DITCH the brake !!!

Yes, there is such a thing as NORMAL, if you have to ask what is "NORMAL" , you probably aren't !
Failure may not be an OPTION, but it is ALWAYS a POSSIBILITY.
ALL systems are GO for MAYHEM, CHAOS, TURMOIL, FIASCOS, and HAVOC !

Let’s hope everything is cleared up by then. We have our Alaska trip with 4 other couples scheduled for 8/30. We just have a $50 refundable deposit now, and need to pay by 6/1. I remain hopeful, because I don’t want to speculate on what could happen if we still have lockdowns and business closures rising.

It’s decent that your resort is sweetening the deal. I suspect more of that will happen, as companies struggle to find ways to keep themselves in business.

School graduations are certainly questionable. I feel bad for graduating seniors in high school and college. High school graduation was more memorable for me, only because we did so much partying leading up to the ceremonies, and thinking I might not see many of these people again, or for a long time. For college, I knew where I was headed after graduating — to my first real job, and making good money for the first time in my life! And I was married my senior year, so the partying was perhaps a bit less...

__________________
Lee Reep
NAR 55948

Projects: Semroc Saturn 1B, Ken Foss Designs Mini Satellite Interceptor
In the Paint Shop: Nothing! Too cold!
Launch-Ready: Farside-X, Maxi Honest John, Super Scamp

Okay, I am declaring a national emergency. GH has changed personalities.

Drastic times demand drastic actions.

__________________
When in doubt, WHACK the GAS and DITCH the brake !!!

Yes, there is such a thing as NORMAL, if you have to ask what is "NORMAL" , you probably aren't !
Failure may not be an OPTION, but it is ALWAYS a POSSIBILITY.
ALL systems are GO for MAYHEM, CHAOS, TURMOIL, FIASCOS, and HAVOC !

I hope I'm wrong but I think high school spring graduation 'communal' ceremonies are going to be canceled pretty much everywhere. I can't see many of those going forward by late May or early June even. The way things are going, we may *just* be seeing things calming down by then (akin to what China is seeing now), so maybe some relaxing of guidelines but probably not enough to warrant bringing thousands together (or hundreds for that matter) for graduation ceremonies.

Again, I hope I'm wrong. I hope the medical and disease experts are wrong about their current models. But just looking at the way the numbers are going right now, they seem to have been right so far. And stories are starting to leak, not sure how valid, that the number of deaths in China may have been in the 40,000 range, instead of the 3200 or so they have reported so far. Look for stories about Chinese funeral home urn deliveries the past few days.

Yes, be safe. If you don't *have* to go somewhere, don't. Wash your hands like a maniac and DO NOT touch your face. You have to suspect by this point that anything you might touch outside your home OR bring into your home has the virus on it. Sounds a bit paranoid I know, but I would think there are thousands in hospitals around the country right now that wish they would have approached things that way.

Earl

__________________
Earl L. Cagle, Jr.
NAR# 29523
TRA# 962
SAM# 73
Owner/Producer
Point 39 Productions

Rocket-Brained Since 1970

Here's the latest 'daily new cases' graph for the US, which was referenced in my earlier message from last night.

One can see that for the four days from March 27-30 that the 'rate' of increase from day to day is slowing. Still huge numbers of new cases each day, like 19,000 or so the past couple days, but dare I say a leveling 'trend' does at least seem to be trying to poke through.

The next step one would hope would be at least a definite leveling off and then a downward trend from there. Still, a long way to go before the new case numbers get back to any sane level but maybe it is a sign that some of the social distancing efforts are beginning to work maybe.

This graph is for the country as a whole, so your local area may be considerably better (or worse) than this overall national picture.

Sustained, dedicated efforts. Sustained, dedicated efforts. Sustained, dedicated efforts. Sustained, dedicated efforts. Sustained, dedicated efforts. Sustained, dedicated efforts.

...and repeat.


Earl

Attached Thumbnails

 

__________________
Earl L. Cagle, Jr.
NAR# 29523
TRA# 962
SAM# 73
Owner/Producer
Point 39 Productions

Rocket-Brained Since 1970

Geez, late March now seems like about 136 years ago. And I thought the numbers then were bad....

Hitting 150,000 cases seems almost quaint now that we are over 880,000 cases; almost SIX times the amount. In just ONE month.

We’ll hit 50,000 deaths by Friday no problem, and at our current average of 2000 per day, even if that average starts to drop some, we’ll probably hit 60,000 by May 1. And unless that average REALLY starts to fall off, we are going to be very close to or over 100K by the end of May.

With states already flirting with opening things back up (and my state ain’t just flirtin’...we is openin’ up big-o time the next few days), those rates could start inching back up.

We have at least leveled off on daily new cases and daily deaths. But, that ‘leveling off’ is at pretty atrocious rates: about 28,000 per day new cases and about 2000 deaths. And back in mid-March I thought what Italy was going through was bad. We are twice their rates, but considering we have nearly four times the population that is understandable. Still, the absolute numbers are staggering and hard to ‘digest’.

My primary hope in the short run is a seasonal break in this virus, but there is certainly no guarantee in that. Beyond that is a vaccine, but that is still a good year away, more than likely.

Otherwise...one day at the time. Keep up the hand washing and no face touching, and regardless of the steps your state is or is not taking, keep your exposure opportuniities to a minimum. I hope my state leaders do not look back 3-4 weeks from now and say “Oops, we made a huge mistake!”.

Be safe folks.

Earl

__________________
Earl L. Cagle, Jr.
NAR# 29523
TRA# 962
SAM# 73
Owner/Producer
Point 39 Productions

Rocket-Brained Since 1970

Earl -
If you are in Georgia, I gotta say WTF is your governor doing ?
Seems he is hell-bent on opening the worst possible exposure businesses.
Tattoo parlors, Gyms, Salons/Barber Shops ??
C'mon noww.

__________________
When in doubt, WHACK the GAS and DITCH the brake !!!

Yes, there is such a thing as NORMAL, if you have to ask what is "NORMAL" , you probably aren't !
Failure may not be an OPTION, but it is ALWAYS a POSSIBILITY.
ALL systems are GO for MAYHEM, CHAOS, TURMOIL, FIASCOS, and HAVOC !

Makes no sense to open tattoo parlors without opening nudie bars.

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I love sanding.