If it was just the parade laps for both bombers and fighters, then he probably had already made a mistake to get so far behind. Either that, or he did some unscheduled aerobatics that got him behind. Either way, he was hauling adz, which factored in. I wouldn't think he would freeze (target fixation) vs. yanking it hard and stalling or over stressing the airframe. It looked like it was a smooth turn all the way to contact, so he didn't make any sudden inputs unless it was so close to impact that we couldn't see it.

On bikes, there is target fixation where your body steers the bike into what you are looking at. If you are looking at an obstacle (car) or at the point of a curve you think you can't make, you tend to ride straight into them instead of progressing the turn. We are taught to look through the curve, well ahead of the bike where we want to end up, and our hands will make the bike follow. It probably has to do with your brain thinking you will go down if you brake harder or turn harder while already leaned. If you are looking ahead, your body automatically does what it needs to do. I guess it's possible he saw the B-17 and froze, but it seems more likely he didn't expect it to be there and never looked for it, therefore never saw it or saw it way too late.

As for a medical issue, I hate for it to be anyone at fault and hope that is what it turns out to be. However, he was flying faster than the other fighters which means he was compensating for some action. If he passed out from a heart attack or any other medical event, you'd think the rudder and back pressure on the stick would go back to near neutral as his body relaxed (he'd have to actively put in opposite aileron to go wings level with it having almost no dihedral) causing the plane to straighten out the curve and start falling off the wing a little, but the turn remained even and coordinated until impact as near as I could tell in the videos.

__________________
I love sanding.

Yeah, that was my comment earlier to your first post about a possible medical issue (and it could still be...we just don't know). If it was a medical event, it would seem his hold on the yoke and pedals would have 'gone limp' and the plane would have leveled out, gone straight, or in some other way changed course, etc., but it does not appear that ANY change took place to the plane's path. It kept at the same angle, same pace all the way to impact. I just don't think he even knew the B-17 was there.

Earl

__________________
Earl L. Cagle, Jr.
NAR# 29523
TRA# 962
SAM# 73
Owner/Producer
Point 39 Productions

Rocket-Brained Since 1970

It probably wouldn't level out much with the tiny bit of dihedral, but it would likely straighten out considerably and start arcing toward the ground. Falling off the wing is what I call it because it is banked, but there is no opposite rudder to keep the nose up and get it to side slip. It probably has a more official name, but I haven't flown real planes in about 35 years and forget the jargon. I think we are seeing it the same way, at least with what little we have to go on. I hope this doesn't cause knee-jerk legislation against air shows or the CAF and its pilots.

__________________
I love sanding.

Yes, I think we are seeing it the same.

I just shudder to think in that last split-second instant that the P-63 pilot (probably) saw the B-17 just as they collided...I pray that his 'uh-oh' moment was extremely brief and then he went into eternity. God bless his family and the other family members of the B-17.

Just another reminder how fast things can change for someone...either in an airplane, in a car, or, as the case may be, motorcycle (bicycle for that matter): one little boo-boo or lapse and it can be game over with no 'do-over'.

Though it relates to car/driving safety, here is a link to one of my 'real-work' videos from the Savannah River Site (DOE facility), this one back in 2013. It was part of our monthly employee 'video news' production series we do. There is the standard 30 second video intro to the program (called 'SRNS NOW'... our company name is Savannah River Nuclear Solutions and the program itself is called "NOW") then the driving safety feature.

At any rate, this particular production I wrote, shot, produced, and edited talks about that very thing of doing things that are 'familiar' to us; so familiar that we many times take for granted the true hazards we face. We so often think accidents will happen to the 'other guy', but it can just as easily be us, if we are not always aware of our surroundings and what the other folks on the road (or in the air) are doing. BTW, the narrator in this case is a narrator I hired to narrate my script; that is not my voice. You can see some of my 'non-rocketry' video work!

Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zK1YU1il48

Earl


Earl

__________________
Earl L. Cagle, Jr.
NAR# 29523
TRA# 962
SAM# 73
Owner/Producer
Point 39 Productions

Rocket-Brained Since 1970

Yes, the sober ones that survive the wrecks I work pretty much say something to that affect. They didn't see it at all, or at the last second. I worked a wreck Friday where a woman pulled out in front of a dump truck hauling milled asphalt. He saw her and did his best to avoid it. She never knew what hit her until we got her out and she saw the big truck on its side with asphalt all over the place. He said it was his 2nd wreck like that where he had no control in the outcome, the last being 2019. He just rode it out.

__________________
I love sanding.

Like tbzep, have responded to my share of motor vehicle collisions during my career. Been involved in a few as well. One almost pushed the ambulance on its side while treating a patient in the back (not only did we have lights and siren on, but we had the green light! Had a nasty cut on the head from hitting a cabinet in the patient compartment). In most MVCs, folks simply aren't paying attention and/or are focused on something else.

With this mishap, they will probably be able to figure out what went wrong with a high degree of certainty even without the black boxes. There is plenty of video, plus radio traffic, radar transponders, etc.

Still a very sad incident indeed.

__________________
Web Site and Blog
https://rocketryjournal.wordpress.com

YouTube Channel
https://www.youtube.com/@AustinAerospace

3D Printing Designs
https://www.thingiverse.com/austin_aerospace_education

Software
https://sourceforge.net/u/austinaerospace/profile

Yes, hopefully the radio traffic will make quick work of the investigation.

Bob, I don't know which is worse. I've been clipped a few times on scenes when the PD/Troopers allowed a lane of traffic. Sometimes it's people not paying attention at all or rubbernecking. Other times they were looking right at me, often cursing and pissed off that someone had the audacity to wreck and cause them a few minutes delay, or that I was doing my job. The fun ones are the idiots that hammer down around 50 mph through all those red and blue lights, yellow vests, and people trying to slow or stop them...and the trooper jumps in his car and chases them down! I've seen a few end up in a SO or PD back seat. (Our troopers don't normally transport.)

__________________
I love sanding.

This video has what seems to be the best view of the collision (plus some other views).

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tF6vRDrMBHs

Note that the P-63 was banked about 45 degrees at the time. Being at the same altitude as the B-17, and a known P-63 fault being poor range of visibility, there was not much chance to see the B-17 out the right window looking 45 degrees "down".

In this pic below, steeply banked the opposite way, imagine trying to look out directly left.... the wing is mostly in the way.



Also, it would be natural for a pilot , banked hard left, to be looking either ahead, or ahead and a bit left.... towards where he was turning. Not looking the other way to the right. Because this was not a formation flying situation, at least among the group of fighters he was flying with (I've seen references to him being too far behind the other fighters and trying to catch up).

In any case, it's easy to understand why he didn't see the B-17 till probably a moment before they collided.

Also have seen some commentary by air show type pilots that the mix or planned flying did not seem right. As in there was a group of fighters flying one behind the other, turning on one path, and then bombers on a totally different path. In other words, not all trying to fly a formation, not planned out well.


As far as the pilot having a medical issue, nah. In a 45 degree turn like that, if you let go of the stick, the plane is going to stop turning and go "straight" while banked, letting the nose slowly dip more and more towards the ground. The only thing keeping the nose up in a highly banked turn, is enough up elevator to maintain it in the the turn radius. Given that fact, to me it looked like it was under control up to the moment of the collision.

__________________
Contest flying, Sport flying, it's all good.....
NAR# 18723 NAR.org
GeorgesRockets.com
Georges'CancerGoFundMe:
https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-geo...ay-fight-cancer

After watching this, my first question was, "were all the aircraft flying in "parade formation" at this event flying across each other's paths, or were they generally just following each other?" In one video there looked like there was a line of larger aircraft trailing behind the doomed B-17.

__________________
-Wolfram v. Kiparski
NAR 28643 - TRA 15520
MTMA Section #606 President

The plane involved in the accident:

P-63 Kingcobra Walkaround Tour (2020)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ruoDK2MlAlg

__________________
The other day I sat next to a woman who has a profound fear of flying. I wanted to comfort her, so I said, "Don't worry, we're not gonna' crash. Statistically, we got a better chance of being bitten by a shark." Then I showed her the scar on my elbow from a shark attack. I said, "I got this when my plane went down off of Florida." - Dennis Regan